2008 Senate Race Rankings

OK, time for my soon-to-be-famous rankings of the US Senate races likely to change hands in next year's elections. I've broken them down into 5 broad categories.

In Serious Jeopardy
1. New Hampshire - Sununu
Plain & simple, New Hampshire is a Democratic state now. The turnaround last year in both house seats and the state legislature was nothing short of remarkable. If both Senate seats were up then, Gregg & Sununu would both be lobbyists or think-tankers as I write this. New Hampshire has always been filled with Libertarian Republicans, but social conservatives are in very short supply. When you read comments from locals on the Presidential race, this comes up time and again. Unfortunately for Fergus Cullen and his New Hampshire GOP, the current incarnation of the Republican party is more intensely moralizing and religious than ever before. If former Governor Jeanne Sheehan gets in, Sununu should start sending out job applications (the Bush library, perhaps?) but, even if he's just facing Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, he should have his resume up to date. (% chance of party change: 80% is Sheehan gets in, 60% otherwise)

2. Colorado - Allard
Allard's retiring (and is a lousy Senator, too), popular Representative Mark Udall (37 point victory in 2006) is running for the Dems and the ultra-conservative Bob Schaffer is the GOP candidate. In a state moving rapidly to the left, this is a losing proposition for the right-wingers. My guess is that Udall would have beaten Allard, too, if he'd run again. (75%)

3. Oregon - Smith
I don't hate Gordon Smith, but he's a Republican in a Democratic state. I think the West Coast States, most of all, have been turned off by the GOP's sanctimonious moralizing. Remember when Washington & Oregon were swing states in 2000? Those days are long gone, and its only a matter of time before this disgust with the Jesus banner waving moves inland to the Mountain West - then the GOP is done. Oregon House Speak Jeff Merkley stands a decent shot at winning this thing. (55%)

4. Maine - Collins
I've read quite a bit on the Dailykos and other liberal sites about Collins being a Susan-come-lately to moderation who doesn't toe the middle like her counterpart Olympia Snowe. This is unfair, I think. She voted against Clinton's impeachment, the "partial-birth" abortion ban and other votes back when Republicans called the shots and it wasn't necessary for her to be a moderate. So, I'm a fan, but she's got an R next to her name, so she's got to go. Tom Allen is a very popular Representative (30 point victor in 2006) for a district that covers half the state. In a Democratic (more so every day) state like Maine, this is a pure toss-up. (50%)

5. Minnesota - Coleman
I'm not as high on this race as some others are. Coleman is a slippery chameleon who always manages to be on the right side of the winds of change. He appears to be willing to change positions, statements, even parties, as it suits him. As much of a fan of likely Democratic nominee Al Franken as I am, Minnesotans are very practical people and I think their experience with Jesse Ventura will make them a bit more cautious about electing a-traditional candidates. This is, generally, a Democratic state, though, so Coleman is no shoo-in. Hopefully, Mike Ciresi will win the primary. (30%)

6. Louisiana - Landrieu
I'm very worried about this race. Louisiana is very much a deep south state and the proselytizing nature of the GOP plays well here (although apparently not enough to cause problems for the hooker-visiting David Vitter - what happened to that story, anyway?) The disappointing nature of the states' voters, combined with Katrina displacement, could make big trouble for Landrieu. She is bolstered by decent approval ratings, and the fact that her only (presumed) opponent, thus far, is a Democrat-turned-Republican. (25%)

Depends on the Circumstances
7. Virginia - Warner
The country is losing a great Senator in John Warner, a reminder of the days when the Senate was collegial and its members worked together for the greater good of the country. Unfortunately, the GOP's intense divisiveness and partisanship (witness the first-ever targeting of the opposition leadership in the person of Tom Daschle in 2004) ended that and I'm guessing that disgust over the current political state had something to do with Warner's retirement. That said, the outcome of this race depends largely on who's in. If former Governor Mark Warner gets in, this is a likely Democratic victory. If not, Tom Davis, a North Virginia moderate, has a much better chance of holding it for the bad guys that knee-jerk conservative former Governor Jim Gilmore, who's time in Virginia politics has long passed. (if Warner runs 70%, Davis vs. unnamed Democrat 10%, Gilmore vs. unnamed Democrat 20%)

8. Idaho - Craig
This one's pretty simple, if Craig keeps his promise to resign, this is a Republican seat. If he comes back and runs again, former Representative Larry LaRocco has an even money shot at it. (50% if Craig stays, 1% otherwise)

9. Nebraska - Hagel
Hagel's an honest guy who votes his conscience (even if I don't always agree with it), but his future is in doubt. If he retires and Attorney General John Bruning replaces him as the Republican nominee (or beats him the primary), then Bruning is the large (but not overwhelming) favorite against matinee-idol rancher Scott Kleeb or Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey. I must say, though, that I have trouble picturing Nebraska with two Democratic Senators, although I suppose North Dakota has two. (Hagel is nominee 1%, Bruning is nominee 10%)

Possibly Competitive
10. New Mexico - Domenici
Normally, Saint Pete would be untouchable, but his involvement in the US Attorney firings, as well as his increasingly bizarre behavior could put him in jeopardy in a state where both Bush & the Iraq war and highly unpopular. Also, the Democrats don't have a credible challenger yet. (7%)

11. South Dakota - Johnson
I don't see this one as being as competitive as people think. Johnson is extremely popular and his recovery from a brain aneurysm has been nothing short of miraculous. I have a hard time seeing how any Republican campaign against him doesn't come off as mean spirited. (5%)

12. Arkansas - Pryor
People want to assume that this will be competitive because Pryor's a southern Democrat, but he is very much a moderate, Arkansas is actually pretty Democratic (Democratic Governor, 2 Senators, 3 of 4 Representatives and both state houses) and Hillary at the top of the ticket will help all Democrats in Arkansas. (3%)

Could Surprise
13. Kentucky - McConnell
As majority leader, McConnell has to shoulder some of the blame for the overall view of Republicans nationwide. Plus, his public comments often come off as self-serving and disingenuous (even for a politician) and his 7% net approval rating is nothing to write home about. He's probably fine, but he can't take anything for granted against Attorney General Greg Stumbo. (3%)

14. Texas - Cornyn
Cornyn takes some fairly indefensible positions (sponsoring a bill to take DNA samples from arrestees, not-so-subtly threatening "activist" judges with violence, tying himself to Bush), isn't known for being a genius, has a negative approval rating and is running against up and coming Rick Noriega. That said, this is still Texas. (3%)

15. Alaska - Stevens
He's been a Senator since 1970 and brings home tons of money to Alaska. Plus, for some reason, even Democrats seem to like him. Unless this corruption scandal really blows up (I mean REALLY blows up), I don't see him going anywhere. (1%)

16. Kansas - Roberts
Kansas is less conservative than it used to be (at least partly because of Republican in-fighting in the state) and Democrats have scored some surprising victories in recent years (Governer Kathleen Sebelius, Representative Nancy Boyda). Roberts is likely safe, but stranger things have happened (see: Boyda beating Jim Ryun). (1%)

17. North Carolina - Dole
She hasn't done much and NC is moving left ever so slightly. Maybe it could happen, although I don't buy for a second the argument that NC voters will punish her for her disastrous role as chairman of the NRSC last year. Furthermore, the abject failure of the Democrats to capitalize on some recent gains in the state by fielding a credible challenger (Governor Mike Easley would have made this race highly competitive) make this an even harder road to hoe for them. (1%)

18. Oklahoma - Inhofe
I try to maintain at least a veneer of impartiality in the lists but, God, do I hate Jim Inhofe. His stance on Global Warming in unconscionable and seeing Barbara Boxer shut him up in the Senate was a great joy. He's likely too popular amongst the many right wing religious types in Oklahoma to be voted out, though. (1%)

No Chance
19. Alabama - Sessions

19. Delaware - Biden
He's kind of an odd guy, isn't he?

19. Georgia - Chambliss
I haven't forgotten what he did to Max Cleland in 2002, but he's not going anywhere, especially helped by Georgia's new voter-ID law. Georgia might be the only state in the country that's actually becoming MORE Republican.

19. Illinois - Durbin

19. Iowa - Harkin

19. Massachusetts - Kerry
But I encourage Republicans to look at his approval ratings and spend lavishly here to defeat him.

19. Michigan - Levin

19. Mississippi - Cochran

19. Montana - Baucus

19. New Jersey - Lautenberg
See Massachusetts.

19. Rhode Island - Reed

19. South Carolina - Graham
Big fan of his, actually.

19. Tennessee - Alexander
People think Ford's close race last year makes this seat vulnerable, but Alexander is a relative moderate and Tennessee is pretty red.

19. West Virginia - Rockefeller
Rockefeller & Byrd make me nervous because neither is a spring chicken and these seats are prime Republican takeover material once they retire.

19. Wyoming - Barrasso


19. Wyoming - Enzi