Monday, September 17, 2007

Fantasy Sports Update & Senate Race Rankings Revisited

Rough week on the Fantasy Sports circuit. After an inspiring Cinderella run to the semi-finals of my baseball league, my hopes were dashed by the #1 seed in a 8-3 whupping. This was my last shot to win the title with Vlad Guerrero, Chase Utley and A-Rod (Chase & A-Rod usually not concurrently) on my team. After 3 years, all keepers go back into the pool, so next year's draft should be fascinating with all the big guns back in it. Although I'm sad to see those guys go (and regret not taking better advantage of their presence on my roster), I'll start next year with Justin Mourneau, Chris B Young (30/30 but a .250 average) and Billy Butler (potential AL batting champ) on my team.

To rub salt in my wounds, I am lined up to lose all 4 of my fantasy football leagues this week. The combo of Carson Palmer & Chad Johnson just killed me as I was facing either or both of them in multiple leagues. Also, what is going on with Phillip Rivers? He has just killed me. At least the Chargers opted to let him throw on 4th & Goal from the 1 last night instead of having Tomlinson take it in. Oh, to top it all off, my Jets are 0-2. Good times...

Anyway, enough fantasy sports talk, on to Politics.

I have a suggestion for all of the other liberals out there - something that I've been doing for a while. You know how you get your proxy statements to vote your 25 shares of IBM? Well, since Institutional Investors and insiders control the vast majority of shares, your votes don't mean squat, so why not use them to make a statement. When you get the proxy to vote for the board of directors, go to www.opensecrets.org or www.newmeat.com and look to see whom they contributed money to and the vote accordingly. It takes about 10 minutes altogether and makes you feel good. If enough of us do this, at least we can make certain directors' "for" votes noticeably different than others.

Time for a brief update to my Senate rankings from last week with all of the comings and goings that have happened. No commentary means that my thoughts are unchanged from my much-longer rankings in my post from 9/5.

In Serious Jeopardy
1. New Hampshire - Sununu
With Jeanne Sheehan in the race, this is a likely Democratic pick-up. I read an article today where a GOP operative said that this race is "over, done." I agree. (% chance of party change: 80%)

2. Colorado - Allard
A primary challenge has been mounted to Bob Schaffer by rancher Wayne Wolf. Having to spend money in the primary should weaken Schaffer's already mediocre chances against Mark Udall. (75%)

3. Virginia - Warner
The best possible news - Mark Warner's in the race. This wasn't too unexpected once his friend (and former combatant) John Warner announced his retirement. I've seen a few polls suggesting that M. Warner is the overwhelming favorite against either Tom Davis or Jim Gilmore. I also believe he would beat George Allen handily if Macaca decided to give it another go. (80% vs. Gilmore, 70% vs. Davis or Allen)

4. Maine - Collins
Very impressed with Allen's campaign and Collins has shown some cracks, especially over the opposition video-taping. (55%)

5. Oregon - Smith
Unchanged. (55%)

6. Minnesota - Coleman
Unchanged - even with Minnesotans' unhappiness with the war and Bush, Coleman always manages to pull out wins. I must say, though, Franken's campaign hasn't been too bad so far.(30%)

7. Louisiana - Landrieu
Still concerned about this race, although I have my doubts about its competitiveness if ex-Democrat John Kennedy is the Republican nominee. (25%)

Depends on the Circumstances
8. Nebraska - Hagel
Chuck Hagel's another unfortunate loss for the Republican party and, frankly, America. He's way too conservative for me, but he is an honest voice in public discourse which you have to admire. The big question in this race is now whether or not former Senator Bob Kerrey comes back from New York to fight for his old seat. I'm guessing yes. If not, as impressive as rancher Scott Kleeb's 2006 performance was (losing by 10% in maybe the most Republican district in the country), I don't see him pulling it out. (Kerrey runs 50%, otherwise 5%)

9. Idaho - Craig
Unchanged. (50% if Craig stays, 1% otherwise)

10. South Dakota - Johnson
Although I wish Johnson would announce for sure whether he's running or not. If he retires and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin steps in, I think the Dems still likely hold this seat, even if Mike Rounds gets in the race (I've heard no indication that he would). (5% if Johnson doesn't retire, 15% if he does and Herseth gets in, 70% if he does and she doesn't)

11. Arkansas - Pryor
Probably not competitive, but if Mike Huckabee is somehow the Republican presidential nominee maybe, maybe he could pull Pryor's opponent along on his coat-tails. If Huckabee drops out of the presidential race and gets into this one, then everyone needs to re-evaluate. (5% if Huckabee isn't involved, 10% if he's the GOP nominee for prez, 50% if he runs for the seat)

Possibly Competitive
12. New Mexico - Domenici
Unchanged(5%)

13. Kentucky - McConnell
Although McConnell's at +7% net approval, the Republican brand is getting worse and worse in Kentucky. Maybe Stumbo can pull it off. (5%)

Could Surprise
14. Texas - Cornyn
Unchanged (3%)

15. Alaska - Stevens
Unchanged (1%)

16. Kansas - Roberts
Unchanged (1%)

17. North Carolina - Dole
Unchanged (1%)

18. Oklahoma - Inhofe
Unchanged - still hate Jim Inhofe a lot.... (1%)

No Chance (all unchanged)
19. Alabama - Sessions
19. Delaware - Biden
19. Georgia - Chambliss
19. Illinois - Durbin
19. Iowa - Harkin
19. Massachusetts - Kerry (go for it GOP!)
19. Michigan - Levin
19. Mississippi - Cochran
19. Montana - Baucus
19. New Jersey - Lautenberg (See Massachusetts)
19. Rhode Island - Reed
19. South Carolina - Graham
19. Tennessee - Alexander
19. West Virginia - Rockefeller (still not getting any younger)
19. Wyoming - Barrasso
19. Wyoming - Enzi

Anyway, that's it - will try to get something up in the Governers and House races soon. You won't see any Presidential polls from me any time soon - too many smarter people than me are tackling that one.

Had a great weekend - the family and I took a trip with my in-laws down the coast this weekend to Seaview and Cannon Beach. Cannon Beach is such a spectacular place, those haystacks amaze me every time. M was adorable playing in the sand and falling on his butt.

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